A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency
نویسندگان
چکیده
As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point estimates and margins of error for a presidential candidate’s electoral-vote total. We use data from both the 2000 and ∗ Yale School of Management, Box 208200, New Haven, CT 06520-8200. e-mail: [email protected] † Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139. e-mail: [email protected]
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ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Operations Research
دوره 51 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2003